Sunday 29 April 2012

Loss Aversion Bias | Behavioral Finance

Loss aversion bias was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979 as part of the original prospect theory. Basically, it suggests that psychologically, the possibility of a loss is on average twice as powerful a motivator as the possibility of making a gain of equal magnitude. In short, it suggests that people woud prefer to avoid a loss to realizing a gain. 
Loss aversion can prevent people from cutting losing trades, even when they see no prospect of a turnaround. Some industry veterans have coined a diagnosis of "get-even-itis" to describe this widespread affliction, whereby a person waits too long for a trade to rebound instead of cutting their losses. This is dangerous because the best response to a loss is to cut it fast and move on to a better trade.
Similarly, loss aversion bias can make traders dwell excessively on risk avoidance when evaluating possible gains, since dodging a loss is a more urgent concern than seeking a profit. When their trades start to show a profit, loss-averse traders hasten to lock in profits, fearing that, the market might reverse itself and rescind their profits. The problem here is that exiting too early to protect gains severely limits upside potential. This prevents traders from catching the big moves.
This is where the importance of the stoploss comes in. If a trader is disciplined, and has a preset stoploss point, the trader will exit a losing trade once the stoploss point is breached. This removes any blind hope of a rebound, and by squaring off positions, it puts the trader in a neutral frame of mind to enter the next trade, and at the same time frees up the capital for it.

Monday 23 April 2012

Case Study - UEMLAND


1. Trendline: breakdown descending triangle (bearish)
2. candle stick: hammer, potential bullish reversal (bullish)
3. BB: candle beyond lower band, potential pullback (bullish)
4. volume: Decreasing, indicator supply start drying up (bullish)
5. ADX: downtrend with moderate momentum (bearish)
6. MACD: below 0 (bearish)
7. RSI: below 30% (bearish)
8. Sto: below 20% (bearish)
9. volume distribution: high selling pressure (bearish)


conlcusion: 6 bear 3 bull

position : short

Comments: let see if she able to hold ~ 1.96 and start to formed a bullish reversal pattern for technical rebounce play



買賣股票是一項營業?


黃先生問:在馬來西亞,沒收入人士在股票賺到的錢合法嗎?股票資本收益(Share Capital Gain)需要或如何報稅?
另外,沒收入的人士,將來可以動用從股票賺到的錢買房子嗎(現金購買)?如果有一天內陸稅收局來查詢時,就提出證明;就是拿出股票所每個月寄出的每月結單可以嗎、足夠嗎?
股票所每個月寄出的月結單大概要收幾年?需要收每一項交易記錄嗎?如果是每日交易者,內陸稅收局會當做營業收入來徵稅嗎?
請問:每日交易者是如何定義?是每日交易的獲利(每一天結賬?),對敲收益(4天裡結賬?),或者一個月裡超過某些數字,買賣交易同一隻股票是否屬於每日交易者?可從哪方面尋求進一步資料?有任何教導投資者如何報稅的課程嗎?
答:宏願理財機構稅務與財務咨詢總監蔡兆源說,在1967年大馬所得稅法令下, 營業(business)包括專才執業(profession)、討生活的方式(vocation)、交易(trade)、每項有商業性質的製造、冒險或 動作(every manufacture,adventure or concern in the nature of trade),但不包括員工僱用(employment)。
基本上,如果你是在投資股票(Investment in shares),就無需繳所得稅;反之,如果你是在買賣股票(Dealing in shares),就必須繳所得稅。怎麼樣來鑒定一項股票交易是投資或買賣呢?請參考以下例子:黃先生在今天購買一隻股票,隔天賣出,之後又再購買一隻股 票,再賣出。黃先生一直頻密進行同樣的交易。這是有商業性質的冒險或動作,而那賺幅就是營業盈利,黃先生被視為進行一項股票買賣,須繳個人所得稅。
另一個相對的例子是:吳先生今天購買一隻股票,賺取股息,10年後吳先生把它賣掉,賺了一筆錢。這賺幅是資本進款(capital receipt),不是一項有商業性質的冒險或動作,吳先生被視為進行一項股票投資,不須繳所得稅。
“投資股票”和“買賣股票”的差別
若要分辨“投資股票”和“買賣股票”是不容易,且又具爭論性的。一般來說,有更多商業特徵(badges of trade)的罕有動作或交易,被視為一項營業的可能性就更大。
在股票交易來說,擁有期越短,意思就是說,買和賣股票的日期越接近,商業性質就越高,盈利須繳稅的可能性也就越大。此外,同樣交易的次數越高,那商業性質就越高,盈利須繳稅的可能性也就越大。例如,頻密地買賣了好幾次股票。
“投資股票”和“買賣股票”的虧損
值得注意的是,當股票交易被視為一項營業,其虧損就是商業虧損(business loss),可以用來抵銷其他收入,包括其他商業或非商業收入,而未被抵銷的商業虧損(unabsorbed business loss),可以被結轉至下一個估稅年,用來抵銷下一個估稅年的任何商業收入(business income)。
從股票投資的非商業虧損(non-business loss)是不能用來抵銷任何收入的;同樣的,未被抵銷的非商業虧損(unabsorbed non-business loss)不可以被結轉至下一個估稅年。
須保存記錄最少7年
雖然在自行估稅的制度下,除了報稅表格,很多文件都不須被呈上去給稅收局,但這並不代表納稅人,不須保存這些文件以供稅務局審查。在沒逃稅的情況下,納稅人最少要保存過去7年的文件。因此,如果你是買賣股票,必須保存有關股票的月結單,最少要保存7年。
如果對買賣股票的稅務事宜不甚瞭解或不清楚如何處理,納稅人應該諮詢稅收局的官員。查閱稅收局網站http://www.hasil.gov.my或諮詢稅務顧問的意見。(星洲日報/投資致富‧財富問診室)

Case Study - FABER


1. Trendline: ascending triangle, pending breakout (bullish)
2. candle stick: shoting star (bearish)
3. Bollinger Band: Both upper & lower band expanding (bullish)
4. volume: above 40ma (bullish)
5. ADX: uptrend with moderate momentum (bullish)
6. MACD: below 0 (bearish)
7. RSI: touching 70%, pending breakout (bullish)
8. Sto: breakdown 80% (bearish)
9. volume distribution: high buying pressure (bullish)

conclusiion: 6 bull 3 bear

position: long

entry: 1.69 / 1.85(triangle breakout)
profit taking: 1.81 / 1.98,2.12, 2.26 (triangle breakout target)
cut loss: 1.56

Case Study - LITRAK


1.Trendline: sideway (neutral)
2. candle stick: long white body (bullish)
3. BB: both upper & lower band start expanding (bullish)
4. volume: above 40 ma (bullish)
5. ADX: bullish kissover (bullish)
6. MCAD: bullish crossover (bullish)
7. RSI: break 50% (bullish)
8. Sto: breakout 80% (bullish)
9. volume distribution: high buying pressure (bullish)


conlclusion: 8 bull 1 neutral

position long

entry: 4.14
profit taking: 4.20, 4.27, 4.32,4.38
cut loss: 4.00

Sunday 15 April 2012

Case Study - UNISEM


1. Trendline: ascending triangle, pending breakout (neutral)
2. candle stick: neutral
3. volume: above 40 ma (bullish)
4. ADX: uptrend with strong momentum (bullish)
5. MACD: uptrend, 3R1G (bullish)
6. RSI: pending 70% breakout (neutral)
7. Sto: bullish crossover, touching 80% (bullish)
8. volume distribution: high selling pressure (bearish)


conclusion: 4 bull 1 bear 3 neutral

position: long

entry: 1.53
profit taking: 1.57, 1.67 (ascending triangle breakout tp)
cut loss: 1.48 / 20ma (~ 1.42)

Case Study - KULIM


1. Trendline: higher high & higher low, uptrend (bullish)
2. Candle Stick: white long body (bullish)
3. volume : above 40 ma (bullish)
4. Bollinger band: upper & lower band start to expnd (bullish)
5. ADX: uptrend with weak momentum (bullish)
6. MACD: touching 0, pending crossing abve 0, uptrend (bullish)
7. RSI: touching 70%, pending 70% breakout (bullish)
8. Sto: breakout 80% (bullish)
9. volume distribution: high selling pressure (bearish)



conclusion: 8 bull 1 bear

position: long

entry price: 4.40
profit taking: 4.44, 4.52, 4.58
cut loss: 4.28

Note: Be aware not to be trapped as big shark is dumping at last trading session...

Saturday 14 April 2012

Case Study - KIANJOO


1. Trendline: downtrend (bearish)
2. Candle Stick: white long body (bullish)
3. volume : above 40 ma (bullish)
4. Bollinger band: both upper & lower band start to expand (bullish)
5. ADX: bullish crossover, uptrend with low momentum (Bullish)
6. MACD: 4R1G, bullish kiss over (bullish)
7. RSI: rebounce from 30% and breakout 50%, pending 70% breakout (bullish)
8. Sto: BUllish crossover, breakout 50%, pending 80% breakout (bullish)
9. volume distributionL: high buying pressure (bullish)


conclusion: 8 bull 1 bear

position: long

entry: 2.07
profit taking: 2.10, 2.14, 2.22, 2.28, 2.33
cut loss: 1.98

Case Study - IGB


1. Trendline: sideway (neutral)
2. Candle stick: white long body (bullish)
3. BB: Squeezing, pending brekout (neutral)
4. volume; above 40ma (bullish)
5. ADX; uptrend with moderate momentum (bullish)
6. MACD: histrogram forming rouding bottom, MACD above 0, pending bullish crossover (bullish)
7. RSI: breakout 50%, pending 70% breakout (bullish)
8. Sto: breakout 80% (bullish)
9. volume distribution: high buying pressure (bullish)


conclusion: 7 bull 2 neutral

position: long

entry: 2.92
profit taking: 3.13, 3.29
cut loss: 2.77

Case Study - CANONE


1. Trendline: sideway (neutral)
2. Candle Stick: long white body (bullish)
3. Bolinger Band: upper & lower band expand, start breakout after squeezed for 5 weeks (Bullish)
4. Volume: above 40ma (bullish)
5. ADX: uptrend with weak momentum (bullish)
6. MACD: above 0 (bullish)
7. RSI: rebounce from 50%, pending 70% breakout (bullish)
8. Sto: 80% breakout (bullish)
9. volume distribution: high buying pressure (bullish)

conclusion: 8 bull 1 neutral

position: long

entry: 1.97
profit taking: 2.04, 2.16
cut loss: 1.84

Tuesday 10 April 2012

Case Study - SYF

1. Trendline: breakout from downtrend, higher low & high higher high (bullish)
2. candle stick: white body: (bullish)
3. volume: less than 40ma (bearish)
4. ADX: uptrend with weak momentum bullish)
5. MACD: 4R1G (bullish)
6. RSI: touching 70% , pending 70% breakout (bullish)
7. Sto: breakout 80%, bullish kissover (bullish)
8. volume distribution: high buying pressure (bullish)


conclusion: 7 bull 1 bear

position: long

entry price: 0.54
profit taking: 0.57, 0.61
cut loss: 0.525

Case Study - MULPHA

  
1. Trendline: sideway (neutral)
2. candle stick: white long body (bullish)
3. volume: above 40 ma (bullish)
4. ADX: uptrend with strong momentum (bullish)
5. MACD: uptrend (bullish)
6. RSI: brekaout 70% (Bullish)
7. Sto: breakout 80% (bullish)
8. volume distribution: high buying pressure (Bullish)

conclusio: 7 bull 1 neutral

position: long

entry: 0.455
profit taking: 0.47, 0.48, 0.495
cut loss: 0.44

Note: for high risk taker only.

Case Study - PMETAL

1. Trendine: uptrend (bullish)
2. candle stick: white body (bullish)
3. ADX: uptrend with strong momentum (bullish)
4. MACD: above 0, round bottom (bullish)
5. RSI: breakout 50% (bullish)
6. Sto: bullish crossover, rebounce from 20% (bullish)
7. volume distribution: high selling pressure (bearish)

conclusion: 6 bull 1 bear

position: long

entry price: 2.07
profit taking: 2.11, 2.20, 2.31
cut loss:  2.03